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Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, by Donella H. Meadows Jorgen Randers
Free Download Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, by Donella H. Meadows Jorgen Randers
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In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update.
Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet.
Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes.
In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste.
Written in refreshingly accessible prose, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development.
Product details
Paperback: 338 pages
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing; 3 edition (June 1, 2004)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 193149858X
ISBN-13: 978-1931498586
Product Dimensions:
6 x 1 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.2 out of 5 stars
83 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#138,178 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
The book looks back at the conclusions in the book The Limits To Growth and assesses them based on recent data on energy, resources, the environment, etc. The original "Limits" book warned that continuing growth on the pattern of the past would lead to an "overshoot" and collapse of industrial civilization within a century. This book demonstrates conclusively that the world is now in "overshoot," using resources and producing wastes and environmental impacts in a way that won't be sustainable over the generations just ahead. The analysis is sobering, but it never gives way to gloom and doom. The best parts of the book are its clear, thoughtful recommendations on how to back down our impacts and avoid a collapse.
If you're like me & started wondering how economic growth could possibly go on forever, then you need to read this book. Even though this revision of the original is 16 years old, it's more relevant now than ever since many of the signs of environmental and economic breakdown predicted by this book are coming true on the news every day. The message is clear: we're all in this environmental mess together, and we'd all better start changing our ways - yesterday ! - as it may already be too late.
The LTG 30-year update is a more rigorous analysis of all the variables affecting the global ecosystem than the original 1972 study. A principal difference, of course, is that advances in computing power have far exceeded probably even the most optimistic expectations in the 1970s, and we can see with greater precision exactly that the effects of our activities are on our tiny planet. Another difference is that many of the trends studied in the initial work can now be confirmed 30 years later.The authors' conclusion is that we have not done much to ameliorate the damage we are doing to Earth, and implicitly to ourselves, by what we have done in the intervening 30 years. We still produce too many offspring, consume too many finite resources, despoil to much of nature's waste-absorbing capacity, and seem to be stuck in a system that inexorably demands still more of the same.But all is not lost. Read this in conjunction with Jordan Randers follow-on study entitled "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years". He uses the same "systems approach" used in this 30-year update. There are solutions, but they will require an informed body politic, thoughtful leadership, and an honest assessment of public policy from all of us.
An interesting read that offers a great example of a complex model. The explanations of the feedback loops are great for those new to stochastic modeling. The application and analysis paints an unbiased view of what may occur if nothing changes which is hard to hear for some but necessary to hear for all. Overall the authors do a good job building the model in the readers head from a component by component level until the entire system can be realized. A recommended read for those familiar with probabilistic modeling or interested in the ramifications of short sighted actions to the long term welfare of the planet.
This is an amazing explanation of the present world condition in terms of its coined word, ¨Overshoot¨: population and food supply, resources and climate warming, and political ramifications. Its amazement lies in the balanced development and explanation of each topic. It is a worthy study for anyone interested in understanding our overall situation, but, it is an amazing primer on how to write about something so disgraceful in such controlled language and example.
I read the first publication of this incredible study in college way back when we still used pen and paper for notes. This current update is disheartening in its scientific data. Don't get me wrong, the quality of the research and the predictions are beyond reproach, however, what it shows is that we have likely past the tipping point and the current global extinction (which is unique because it is not a natural event, but created by over-population of this planet by human kind), clearly in play.
It makes so much sense---we are in overshoot on our way to collapse. In such simple and convincing ways, these process engineers lay it out with their updated model and give you a semi-academic vocabulary and analysis that provides a strong critique versus stupid unplanned growth ecomonics. And they show how making substantial yet not impossible changes could change the fortunes and bring us back to a sustainable balance. Do they overly-discount the potential benefits of new technology yet to be discovered to prevent collapse? I hope to hell they do because if there is anything that is clear, it is that human nature has 1) blind faith in new technology to save us (e.g. how else could nuclear power/waste be justified?) and 2) there is no way that humans will make substantial changes prior to collapse--balance will only be achieved afterwards and of course that means it will be less-rational, more-drastic, less-controllable, more-expensive, more-devastating, etc.
The 30-year update to "Limits to Growth" is possibly the most thought-provoking environmental book I've ever read. I had not read the original, but knew it was heavily criticized as "hysterical" by free-market enthusiasts, especially economist Julian Simon. So, I wasn't expecting the thoughtful, cautious, and considered analysis of the likely scenarios of an ever-expanding human population facing finite resources. The authors make an excellent point that infinite growth (people, food, water, economy, etc.) is simply not possible. Yet, every politician in the world advocates a policy of never-ending growth.The point of the book is not that we will all die from starvation. The point of the book is that if we do not want to run out of resources and live a miserable existence, we have to start planning now. Excellent book to read for your own education, and in some ways, it serves as an antidote to the popular culture's love affair with growth and consumption at any cost.
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